2026 Predictions in Cybersecurity

Preparing Your Organization for the Next Wave of Digital Threats

As we enter 2026, the cybersecurity landscape is undergoing its most dramatic transformation in years. For organizations in defense contracting, healthcare, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, understanding these shifts isn't just about staying informed, it's about maintaining contract eligibility, protecting critical data, and ensuring operational continuity. At Dragnet, we're tracking the developments that will define security strategies for the year ahead, and we're here to help you navigate what's coming.

Cybersecurity Trends to Watch in 2026

The Rise of Agentic AI: Friend and Foe

The year 2026 marks what industry analysts are calling the transition from "AI-assisted" to "AI-native" operations, where autonomous AI agents will be delegated key tasks from triaging security alerts to building financial models. This transformation brings unprecedented opportunities for defenders but also creates entirely new attack surfaces.

Agentic AI has the potential to dramatically lower the barrier to entry for attackers. Where cybercriminals once needed significant technical expertise and time investments, autonomous agents could potentially handle complex attack processes with minimal interaction from the attacker. The democratization of sophisticated attack capabilities means organizations of all sizes face threats previously reserved for high-value targets.

For defense contractors working toward CMMC compliance, this trend underscores the importance of implementing robust Identity and Access Management controls. When AI agents can be compromised and turned into autonomous insiders, traditional perimeter defenses become insufficient.

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The Identity Crisis: When You Can't Trust Your Eyes

Identity itself is becoming the primary battleground of cybersecurity in 2026, with generative AI achieving flawless, real-time replication that makes deepfakes indistinguishable from reality. The emergence of what security researchers call the "CEO doppelgänger" threat represents a fundamental challenge to organizational trust structures.

This isn't science fiction—it's happening now. Artificial intelligence can be used to spoof voices and make scam emails appear more authentic, making social engineering attacks even more believable and dangerous for organizations. For healthcare organizations handling patient data or pharmaceutical companies protecting research, a single successful impersonation attack could compromise years of work.

Cloud Security: The Growing Blind Spot

There are signs that 2026 could be the year a critical mass of attackers turn their attention to attacks against enterprise cloud environments. While cloud services themselves remain robust, a growing number of attackers are deepening their understanding of cloud platforms and identifying viable attack strategies.

Identity and Access Management exploitation is already bearing fruit, with attackers combing code repositories to find forgotten access keys. For manufacturing organizations migrating legacy systems to the cloud or defense contractors maintaining hybrid environments, this trend demands immediate attention to cloud security posture management.

The Quantum Timeline Accelerates

Adversaries are already implementing "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks, systematically collecting encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computing becomes viable. This isn't a distant threat; it's happening today. Attackers don't need current decryption capabilities; they're simply storing encrypted communications, financial records, and sensitive data until quantum computers can break the encryption.

For organizations handling Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Federal Contract Information (FCI), this means that today's encrypted data could be tomorrow's breach. Post-quantum cryptography readiness is no longer optional—it's a strategic imperative.

Emerging Threats: What's on the Horizon

Social Engineering Gets Smarter

Attackers are gaining access to victim networks not by leveraging zero-day vulnerabilities or sophisticated supply chain attacks, but rather by taking advantage of organizations' biggest weakness: the people who work there. The 2025 Salesforce breach attributed to the Shiny Hunters group exemplified this trend, and similar attacks are highly likely in 2026.

Human factors remain critical in cybersecurity defense. Even the most sophisticated technical controls can be bypassed by a well-crafted phishing email or a convincing voice deepfake. This is why Dragnet emphasizes security awareness training as a fundamental component of any comprehensive cybersecurity program.

Ransomware Evolution Continues

By 2026, expect widespread use of Ransomware-as-a-Service and more complex attack tactics, including AI-driven ransomware that can instantly detect vulnerabilities. The focus continues to shift toward critical industries,including finance, healthcare, and energy, where operational disruption creates maximum leverage for attackers.

Ransomware attacks now occur every 19 seconds globally, with average ransom payments reaching $2-3 million. For healthcare organizations, where breach costs average $10 million per incident, the financial impact extends far beyond the ransom itself.

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Geopolitical Cyber Tensions

Ongoing geopolitical pressures on Russia and Iran could provoke threat actors in those countries to initiate disruptive or aggravating cyberattacks on adversaries such as Ukraine, Israel, the EU, and the US. While these actors may sometimes lack the resources for truly destructive attacks, distributed denial-of-service attacks, the spreading of disinformation, and other disruptive activity remain viable options.

Defense contractors are particularly vulnerable to nation-state sponsored attacks, making CMMC Level 2 and Level 3 certifications not just compliance requirements but essential security foundations.

Supply Chain and Third-Party Risks

Supply chains remain a prime target, amplified by geopolitical tensions and global interdependencies, with third parties often serving as entry points for attackers to access sensitive data and disrupt operations. Mergers and acquisitions increase access sprawl and introduce inherited vulnerabilities, creating security gaps that attackers actively exploit.

For pharmaceutical companies with complex supplier networks or manufacturers with extensive partner ecosystems, third-party risk management becomes a critical investment priority for 2026.

Security Budget Planning for 2026: Where to Invest

The Budget Reality

Eighty-five percent of organizations increased their cybersecurity budgets this year, and nearly nine in ten expect to grow them again in 2026. Yet more than half of security leaders still believe their organizations aren't investing enough to manage risk effectively.

The challenge isn't just spending more, it's spending smarter. Global security spending reaches $262 billion in 2026, growing 8-12% year-over-year, but attackers achieve lateral movement in just 48 minutes after initial compromise, 22% faster than in 2023.

Priority Investment Areas

1. Detection and Response Capabilities

Organizations should prioritize rapid detection and response platforms, allocating 15-20% of security budgets to these capabilities. When attackers move in minutes, detection systems must operate at machine speed. AI-powered Security Operations Centers (SOCs) are no longer optional—they're essential for matching the pace of modern threats.

2. Zero Trust Architecture

Zero Trust architecture transformation represents a multi-year journey requiring sustained investment through 2026 and beyond. Organizations should develop comprehensive roadmaps aligned with CISA's Zero Trust Maturity Model, accounting for platform implementations, integration efforts, and organizational change management.

For defense contractors, Zero Trust isn't just a best practice—it's increasingly a contract requirement. CMMC Level 2 and Level 3 explicitly require access control implementations that align with Zero Trust principles.

3. Microsegmentation and Network Controls

Organizations should allocate 15-20% of security budgets to microsegmentation initiatives to prevent lateral movement. With over 70% of cyberattacks involving lateral movement techniques, containing breaches represents one of the most effective risk reduction strategies available.

4. Cloud Security Posture Management

Cloud is the top cybersecurity threat organizations feel least prepared to manage. Eighty-eight percent of organizations plan to increase their team's focus on cloud security in the next two years, recognizing that cloud misconfigurations create exposures that attackers actively exploit.

5. Vulnerability Management

Sixty-three percent of ransomware incidents exploit unpatched vulnerabilities as entry points, making vulnerability management programs worthy of 10-15% of security budgets. For manufacturing organizations with operational technology environments, this priority becomes even more critical.

Balancing People, Process, and Technology

People remain the single largest budget line, consuming roughly one-quarter of total cybersecurity investment. However, adding headcount doesn't automatically translate to added capability. Many CISOs are evolving their workforce models to stretch the value of every analyst, leveraging automation and managed security services to extend team capabilities.

This is where Dragnet's approach provides particular value. Our CMMC Program Management services give you access to qualified cybersecurity professionals without the full-time employee overhead, allowing you to maintain compliance and security posture while managing costs effectively.

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ROI and Demonstrating Value

Leading CISOs are redefining ROI in terms of security yield—how much risk reduction is achieved per incremental dollar spent. When presenting to boards, quantify the risk reduction tied to each investment. For example, link cloud visibility projects to measurable drops in exposed assets or over-permissioned accounts.

Compliance spending presents a particular challenge. While many security leaders report that compliance spending doesn't significantly improve their security posture, compliance remains a board-level priority. The key is folding compliance into broader risk reporting, showing where regulatory controls overlap with real risk reduction.

For defense contractors, CMMC compliance isn't just a checkbox—it's the foundation for contract eligibility. Organizations that treat CMMC as a genuine security framework rather than a compliance burden typically see better security outcomes and smoother certification processes.

The Evolving Insider Threat Landscape: Predictions for 2026

The New Insider: AI Agents as Autonomous Threats

AI agents represent a potent insider threat—they're always-on, never sleep, never eat, but if improperly configured can be given privileged access to critical APIs, data, and systems while being implicitly trusted. With a single well-crafted prompt injection or by exploiting a tool misuse vulnerability, adversaries can co-opt an organization's most powerful, trusted digital employee.

This represents a fundamental shift in insider threat management. Traditional insider threat programs focus on human behavior—monitoring for data exfiltration, unusual access patterns, or policy violations. The rise of AI agents requires extending these programs to cover non-human identities with the same rigor applied to human users.

Human Factors Remain Critical

Insider threats now include compromised workers, negligent behavior, and fraudulent remote hires. Deepfake technology will enable attackers to create fake employees or contractors who pass onboarding checks and even appear in video calls, representing a new frontier in identity fraud.

The implications are particularly serious for organizations handling CUI. A fake employee with legitimate credentials can access sensitive systems for weeks or months before detection, exfiltrating data or establishing persistent access for future exploitation.

Merger and Acquisition Risks

M&A activity introduces inherited vulnerabilities and identity access sprawl. When organizations merge, they often integrate systems and access controls without fully understanding the security posture of acquired entities. This creates gaps that insider threats—whether malicious insiders or compromised accounts—can exploit.

For manufacturing and pharmaceutical companies undergoing consolidation or expansion, post-acquisition security assessments aren't optional. They're essential for understanding and remediating inherited risks before they become active threats.

The Insider Marketplace

The gig economy will extend into insider marketplaces, with disgruntled employees or contractors potentially selling access credentials on dark web forums, creating a service economy around insider threats. This commoditization makes insider threats more accessible to a broader range of attackers, not just sophisticated adversaries.

Detection and Prevention Strategies

Organizations need layered defenses that address the full spectrum of insider risks:

Behavioral Analytics: AI-driven anomaly detection tuned for behavioral baselines can identify subtle deviations that indicate compromised or malicious insiders.

Identity Verification: Continuous identity verification using biometric and behavioral signals helps ensure that the person accessing systems is who they claim to be.

Privileged Access Management: Rotation of privileged access and just-in-time credentials reduces the window of opportunity for insider threats.

Training and Awareness: Staff must be trained to recognize synthetic threats such as deepfakes. Even technical controls can be bypassed if humans aren't prepared to question unusual requests or recognize manipulation attempts.

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Preparing Your Organization for 2026

The cybersecurity landscape of 2026 will challenge even the most prepared organizations. The convergence of AI-driven threats, sophisticated social engineering, cloud complexity, and evolving insider risks creates a threat environment that demands comprehensive, proactive defense strategies.

For defense contractors, healthcare organizations, manufacturers, and pharmaceutical companies, the stakes couldn't be higher. Regulatory compliance requirements continue to tighten, with CMMC 2.0 now fully in effect and contracts increasingly requiring demonstrated security maturity. Cyber insurance requirements are becoming more stringent, and breach costs continue to climb.

Success in this environment requires more than just increasing security budgets. It requires:

• Strategic Planning: Developing comprehensive roadmaps that address both immediate threats and long-term security maturity
• Integrated Defenses: Breaking down silos between network security, cloud security, identity management, and compliance programs
• Continuous Improvement: Regular testing, assessment, and refinement of security controls
• Expert Guidance: Partnering with experienced security professionals who understand both technical controls and compliance requirements

At Dragnet, we've been helping organizations navigate complex cybersecurity challenges for decades. Our team includes Registered Practitioners and Certified CMMC Professionals who understand the unique security needs of defense contractors, healthcare organizations, manufacturers, and pharmaceutical companies.

Whether you're just beginning your CMMC journey, need help preparing for certification, or want to ensure your existing security program addresses the evolving threats of 2026, we're here to help. Our services include:

• Gap and Risk Assessments: Identify vulnerabilities and develop strategic remediation roadmaps
• CMMC/NIST Program Management: Maintain ongoing compliance with expert oversight
• Penetration Testing: Evaluate your defenses against real-world attack scenarios
• Policy and Procedure Development: Create comprehensive security documentation that supports both compliance and operational security
• Incident Response Planning: Prepare for the inevitable with tested, actionable response procedures

The threats facing organizations in 2026 are real, sophisticated, and evolving rapidly. But with the right preparation, expert guidance, and commitment to security excellence, your organization can not only survive these challenges but thrive in an increasingly complex digital landscape.

Contact the Dragnet Team Today

Dragnet provides defense-grade cybersecurity solutions to organizations of all sizes. With expertise in CMMC compliance, penetration testing, and comprehensive security program management, we help defense contractors, healthcare organizations, manufacturers, and pharmaceutical companies protect their critical assets and maintain regulatory compliance. Contact us today to learn how we can help secure your organization for 2026 and beyond.